Structured High Growth of China’s Inbound Tourism Unfolds New Opportunities

China’s inbound tourism surpassed 2019 levels in both scale and revenue in 2025, and we estimate it lifted China’s 2025 GDP by nearly 0.3 percentage points. During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, inbound tourist arrivals rose 23.7% year on year, exceeding pre-pandemic levels, while popular destinations and spending categories for inbound tourism continued to expand. With higher per capita spending by inbound tourists, their boost to domestic consumption in 2026 is likely to be even stronger than in 2025.

We believe the expanding visa-free dividends and greater convenience in payment and transportation are merely catalysts for the inbound tourism boom. The fundamental drivers behind the deepening trend of inbound tourism lie in the richness and upgrading of China’s tourism resources and consumer goods, as well as their unrivaled cost-performance compared with overseas alternatives. Over the past year, we have observed a shift of inbound tourism toward in-depth “Becoming Chinese” experiences. This article examines the characteristics, trends and macroeconomic impacts of China’s inbound tourism.

1. Inbound Arrivals and Revenue Surged in 2025; 2026 Spring Festival Inbound Tourism Sees a “Strong Start”

According to statistics from the National Immigration Administration (NIA), China’s total cross-border passenger trips reached 697 million in 2025, up 14.2% year on year, with growth accelerating quarter by quarter. Among them, inbound trips by foreign nationals rose 26.4% year on year, higher than the 15.1% growth of outbound trips by mainland residents. Meanwhile, inbound trips by residents from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan grew at a slightly slower pace of 9.8%, reflecting the improved “value content” of China’s inbound tourism and the strong competitiveness of the RMB exchange rate.

Inbound tourism remained robust during the Spring Festival. NIA data showed that cross-border trips by residents from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan rose 8% year on year during the 2026 holiday, while those by foreign nationals jumped 21.8%.

The growth rate of travel service exports in China’s trade in services outpaced that of inbound tourist arrivals in 2025, indicating longer average stays and higher per capita spending by inbound tourists. Referring to official data, China’s international tourism revenue (covering sightseeing, catering, accommodation, retail sales and more) stood at approximately $94.24 billion in 2024. Based on the growth rate of travel service exports, we estimate inbound tourism lifted China’s 2025 final consumption expenditure and GDP by 0.4–0.5 and 0.2–0.3 percentage points respectively.

If policy tailwinds drive inbound tourism consumption up 30–50% in 2026, its contribution to consumption could rise to 0.5–0.7 percentage points, and to GDP by 0.3–0.4 percentage points.

2. Strong Support: Rich Tourism Resources & Unrivaled Cost-Performance

Catalysts of the inbound tourism boom include the unrivaled cost-performance and diversity of mainland China’s consumer goods, as well as policy drivers such as expanded visa-free policies and improved travel convenience.

First, inbound trips by Hong Kong and Macao residents recovered to above the 2019 level in the fourth quarter of 2023 — an early sign of the inbound tourism recovery. Data from the People’s Bank of China showed that non-cash consumption payments by Hong Kong residents visiting Shenzhen rose 24% year on year in 2025.

Second, visa-free policies rolled out in recent years have delivered a notable boost. Since the second quarter of 2025, China has greatly expanded the scope of visa-free countries and extended the allowed stay period. As of February 2026, the total population of visa-free countries covered by China’s policies reached approximately 1.22 billion.

Third, consumer-friendly measures have complemented visa-free policies, including upgraded instant departure tax refund services and “binding overseas cards to domestic payment apps”, while a denser transportation network has further improved travel accessibility.

3. Expanding Hotspots: From “China Travel” to “Becoming Chinese”, From Sightseeing to In-Depth Tours

Core megacities remain the top destinations for inbound tourists, showing sustained growth resilience. In December 2025, foreign tourist arrivals in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen recovered to 150%, 117% and 139% of the 2019 level respectively, significantly higher than the national average of around 92%.

Tourism destinations have also continued to expand to smaller cities, with off-the-beaten-path locations and themed routes seeing rapid growth. In-depth tours focusing on Chinese cultural exploration are on the rise, often with higher per capita spending. For instance, per capita spending by inbound tourists in Beijing on the first day of the Lunar New Year exceeded 10,000 yuan, up 10.7% year on year.

Consumer categories have expanded to cultural experiences, personal care, medical services and more. In 2025, national sales of tax-refund eligible goods surged 95.9% year on year, shifting from traditional luxury goods and cosmetics to domestic cultural and creative products, intangible cultural heritage (ICH) souvenirs, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) healthcare products and other categories.

The rise of “reverse purchasing” and “reverse cross-border shopping” reflects the unrivaled cost-performance and diversity of mainland consumer goods. A clear gap has emerged between price levels in mainland China and the US: cumulative US CPI (USD-denominated) since January 2020 was 43.2% higher than China’s as of January 2026, with the service CPI fixed-base index 23.8% higher.

China’s tourism competitiveness has improved rapidly. In the 2024 Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI) released by the World Economic Forum (WEF), China ranked 8th, up from 13th in 2019, among the top 10 alongside the US, Spain, Japan, France, Australia, Germany, the UK, Italy and Switzerland.

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) projects that China’s tourism sector contributed approximately $1.9 trillion to the economy in 2025, growing 15.8% year on year — far exceeding the global average of 7.7%. Over the next decade, China’s tourism industry is expected to grow at an annual average of 7%, reaching $3.8 trillion in economic contribution by 2035 and becoming the world’s largest tourism market.

Upgraded Convenience: Payment, Tax Refund & Transportation

Consumer convenience measures have been further upgraded: instant departure tax refund services are available in over 7,000 stores nationwide, with Beijing launching centralized refund points and Hangzhou rolling out one-click tax refund services that take as little as two minutes to process. In Chengdu, overseas electronic wallets can be used directly to scan QR codes for subway and bus rides via Alipay+, with over 910,000 overseas users served through the “overseas card binding” scheme.

In March 2024, the State Council issued guidelines to optimize payment services for the elderly and foreign nationals in China. The People’s Bank of China released a bilingual payment guide, allowing foreigners to use Alipay, WeChat Pay, Cloud QuickPass and other tools with identity exemption for small-value transactions. A domestic payment firm became the first to launch two solutions for inbound visitors: binding overseas bank cards to domestic apps and direct QR code payments via overseas e-wallets. During the 2024 Spring Festival, overseas tourists’ consumption via Alipay surged 500% year on year, while QR code payments via overseas e-wallets jumped 32 times.

In April 2025, six ministries upgraded the departure tax refund policy: lowering the minimum purchase threshold from 500 yuan to 200 yuan, expanding eligible stores, and extending the instant refund limit and validity period. In Beijing, the number of overseas tourists claiming tax refunds rose 339% year on year in the second quarter of 2025, with tax refund business up 319% and sales of tax-refund goods up 93%. The city added 354 tax-refund stores, bringing the total to over 1,500.

Internationally, airlines have added more flights to popular destinations: Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport has increased routes to Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Seoul, operating 38 international and regional routes with over 240 weekly flights. Beijing has launched tap-to-pay subway services for overseas bank cards and streamlined SIM card application for foreigners. In February 2026, nine ministries including the Ministry of Commerce launched the 2026 “Joyful Shopping Spring Festival” campaign, pledging more international flight capacity and integrated “civil aviation + culture & tourism” packages for inbound tourists.

The “Becoming Chinese” Trend & Destination Diversification

The “Becoming Chinese” trend has gone viral on overseas social media, driven by Gen Z’s enthusiasm for Chinese cultural practices such as drinking hot water in the morning and practicing Baduanjin. The Foreign Ministry noted that the mix of history and modernity, tradition and fashion has strengthened China’s appeal as a global tourist destination.

Qunar data showed that bookings for domestic flights by non-Chinese passport holders during the 2026 Spring Festival rose nearly 30% year on year, with top destinations including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Chengdu. Visa-free policies spurred a 471% jump in bookings by Russian tourists, while South Korean visitors continued the “Friday getaway to China” trend with a 95% year-on-year rise in bookings.

Core megacities maintain strong recovery: Beijing’s foreign tourist arrivals hit 150% of 2019 levels in December 2025, with Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan arrivals at 180%; Shanghai’s foreign arrivals reached 117% and compatriot arrivals 122%; Shenzhen’s foreign arrivals hit 139%. Beijing launched 5 top recommended lists and 10 premium inbound routes, and held cultural exchange events in eight countries to attract tourists.

Smaller cities have emerged as new hotspots: Jining, Ordos, Qionghai, Beihai and Altay saw a surge in inbound tourists during the 2026 Spring Festival. Chaoshan received 100% more Malaysian and South Korean tourists year on year, with ICH experience orders surging 220%; Wanzhou in Chongqing saw inbound orders rise 40%.

Hainan’s free trade port has boosted inbound tourism: 143,000 foreign visa-free visitors arrived between December 18, 2025 and February 18, 2026, up 62.2% year on year, accounting for 94.4% of total foreign inbound visitors to Hainan. Inbound flights to Sanya rose over 300% year on year, with Russia and Southeast Asia as major source markets. Hainan received over 500,000 Russian tourists in 2025, up 120% year on year.

Longer Stays, Higher Spending & Diversified Consumption

Inbound tourists are staying longer and spending more. In Beijing, 15,000 inbound tourists visited on the first day of the Lunar New Year 2026, up 37.1% year on year, spending 160 million yuan (up 51.8%), with per capita spending exceeding 10,000 yuan (up 10.8%). Ctrip data showed South Korea remained the top source market, with Singapore, Russia and Thailand moving up the ranks — all covered by visa-free policies.

Consumption categories have expanded comprehensively to cultural experiences, personal care and medical wellness. National tax data showed 305% more overseas tourists claimed departure tax refunds in 2025, with eligible goods sales up 95.9%. Ctrip’s inbound bookings for cultural and museum products rose 220% year on year, guided tours 28 times, and ICH experiences 126%.